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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph. Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 9AIssued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020000 WTNT33 KNHC 032340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past few hours but a slow southeast or east motion should resume later tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 9Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020000 WTNT23 KNHC 032038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 9Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020000 WTNT43 KNHC 032039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday, re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3 kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020
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FONT13 KNHC 032038
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
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