No thunderstorms detected..
Tropical Storms & Hurricanes
Global Sea Surface Temperature |
|
|
|
Latest North Atlantic Satellite Image |
|
 |
|
National Hurricane Center Updates |
|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 the center of Three was located near 22.9, -92.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 1Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021000 WTNT33 KNHC 172033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 92.4W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021000 WTNT23 KNHC 172032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 1Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021880 WTNT43 KNHC 172034 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of the system, similar to what one might see in a developing subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end of the guidance. Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted, however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brennan Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021
638
FONT13 KNHC 172033
PWSAT3
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021
2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 16(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LAIssued at 422 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LAIssued at 425 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 |
|
