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000
ABNT20 KNHC 171747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located
near Freeport, Texas.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Imelda (AT1/AL112019)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Imelda was located near 29.3, -95.3
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Imelda Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 172032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.3 West. Imelda is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-
northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move
farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Imelda is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves
farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to
40 mph (65 km/h) was recently reported in Galveston, Texas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas.  Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 172031
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  95.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  95.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  95.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  95.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 172033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
around 1800 UTC.  A National Ocean Service observing site near
Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb.  A Weatherflow station
at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
to 44 kt.  The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
offshore.

Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
strengthening could occur.  Now that the center is moving inland,
gradual weakening is expected.  It cannot be stressed enough,
however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
during the next day or so.

Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
tightly clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 29.3N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 172032
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JASPER TX      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 13   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Imelda Graphics


Tropical Storm Imelda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT

Tropical Storm Imelda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at  432 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Humberto was located near 31.0, -72.3
 with movement ENE at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 172042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER
TO BERMUDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 72.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to
pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
on Wednesday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern
coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 172041
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  72.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  72.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  72.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.6N  67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.5N  57.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 43.5N  48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N  72.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  

754 
WTNT44 KNHC 172046
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more
distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity
estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt.
However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have
been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15
percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt
in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the
scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the
25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing
for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer
wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more
since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments
were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The
large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through
48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in
better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward
the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast
track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and
FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest
and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a
significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye
and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the
likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to
strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter,
Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the
hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment
consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable,
drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong
shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing
baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong
jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of
the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2.  Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.0N  72.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 32.6N  67.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 41.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 43.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 172042
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BERMUDA        34  1  50(51)  41(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
BERMUDA        50  X   4( 4)  40(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:49:34 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 21:25:21 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
 the center of Ten was located near 13.4, -45.6
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 172034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h).  A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.  The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the
northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 172033
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  45.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  45.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today.  Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment.  These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019


243 
FONT15 KNHC 172034
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   3(23)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   2(29)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)   1(33)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   1(25)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   1(23)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   1(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   1(31)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Ten Graphics


Tropical Depression Ten 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 21:32:28 GMT