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000
ABNT20 KNHC 032304
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located inland over southeastern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...
 As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3
 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8
 with movement Stationary.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 032340
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West.  Cristobal 
has been nearly stationary over the past few hours but a slow 
southeast or east motion should resume later tonight.  A turn toward 
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.  
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of 
eastern Mexico through Thursday.  The center is forecast to move 
back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the 
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone 
moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical 
depression by Thursday evening.  Some re-strengthening is expected 
to begin on Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:
 
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
 
Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.
 
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
 
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 032038
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  91.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  91.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  91.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N  91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N  90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N  90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N  90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N  90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N  91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.7N  92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  91.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 032039
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
 
Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short 
distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm 
force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported.  The current 
intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and 
maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory.  Since the system 
has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a 
slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical 
depression by late Thursday.  Once the center re-emerges over the 
Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday, 
re-intensification should begin.  However, the model guidance 
currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf 
will not be very conducive for strengthening.  The official 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the 
high end of the guidance suite.  As has been noted, however, there 
is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when 
it approaches the northern Gulf coast.  This is due to the 
limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. 

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3 
kt.  Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain 
over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central 
America and eastern Mexico.  Later in the forecast period, an
increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move 
back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend.  
The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus 
TVCA.


Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
 
2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and 
northern Chiapas states.
 
3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle.  While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 18.3N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 18.0N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1800Z 18.3N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 19.0N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 20.3N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/0600Z 22.0N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1800Z 24.0N  90.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/1800Z 28.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/1800Z 31.7N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020


000
FONT13 KNHC 032038
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   5(19)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   6(25)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
ALEXANDRIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
ALEXANDRIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
JASPER TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics


Tropical Storm Cristobal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 23:40:31 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristobal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 21:24:52 GMT