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Summary for Tropical Storm Imelda (AT1/AL112019)...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Imelda was located near 29.3, -95.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. Tropical Storm Imelda Public Advisory Number 2Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019000 WTNT31 KNHC 172032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 95.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north- northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) was recently reported in Galveston, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 2Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019000 WTNT21 KNHC 172031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 95.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 2Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019000 WTNT41 KNHC 172033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still offshore. Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007. Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland, gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana during the next day or so. Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Tropical Storm Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
FONT11 KNHC 172032
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KOUNTZE TX 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HOUSTON TX 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
FREEPORT TX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Imelda Graphics
Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TXIssued at 432 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Humberto was located near 31.0, -72.3 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph. Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 21Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019000 WTNT34 KNHC 172042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 72.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday. Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 21Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019000 WTNT24 KNHC 172041 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 72.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 21Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019754 WTNT44 KNHC 172046 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt. However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15 percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the 25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory. Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night. The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter, Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable, drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.0N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 172042
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BERMUDA 34 1 50(51) 41(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
BERMUDA 50 X 4( 4) 40(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Humberto Graphics
Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Ten was located near 13.4, -45.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019000 WTNT35 KNHC 172034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019000 WTNT25 KNHC 172033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019000 WTNT45 KNHC 172034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
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FONT15 KNHC 172034
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 1(33)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
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